Low water levels in Lake Huron and Saginaw Bay over the last few years have been a cause for concern among Huron County residents and visitors. The impact on the recreational boating and fishing industry created numerous problems, a fact that is well documented.

Overseas, the BBC World News Service reported on September 26, 1999, that scientists from Canada and the U.S. warned the lakes were at their lowest levels of the century.

Closer to home, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers stated in a report published in 1999 that the water levels began to drop off in the autumn of 1998. On April 3, 2000, the Washington Post reported the fastest decline in water levels in the Great Lakes in nearly a century and a half.

According to an article published in The Bay City Times on April 9, 2000, the Great Lakes Environmental Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported the water level in Lake Huron was approaching the record low set in 1964.

It's not difficult to see how boaters and fishermen in Huron County were affected, because water levels had been significantly higher in the late 1980s and 90s.

Earlier this decade, many harbors and canals were dredged. However, numerous sites were still unable to facilitate launching a boat. Also, residents along the lakeshore had to place their boat hoists further from shore, and many favorite spots for fishermen became dry land.

Water levels have increased slowly over the last few years, and 2003 saw an increase of nearly a foot. But can that trend be expected to continue?

"The forecast for lake levels should be similar to 2004," said Tim Calappi, a Physical Scientist with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District. "Of course, it will depend on the level of precipitation in the spring. May of last year had significant rainfall, which did impact the level of the Great Lakes. The range in June of 2005 is projected to be in a band seven inches above or below last year."

The weekly Great Lakes Water Level Update for February 4, 2005, issued by the Corps, stated: "All of the Great Lakes except Lake Ontario are 7 to 14 inches above last year's levels. Lake Ontario is at the same level as a year ago. Lake Superior is at its long-term average. Michigan and Huron are nine inches below its long-term average. Lakes St. Clair, Erie and Ontario are above their long-term averages by eight, ten and nine inches respectively."

The increase in the levels of the lower Great Lakes has some speculating that it may be at the expense of Lakes Michigan and Huron.

A recent Associated Press article claimed that erosion in a channel in the St. Clair River may be causing the loss of water to the lower lakes. The study by the Georgian Bay Association, a group representing about 17 thousand people who live on the islands and coasts of Georgian Bay, determined the channel, as well as significant dredging, was a contributing factor to declining Lake Huron water levels.

This fact was refuted by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in a recent news release posted on their web site, www.lre.usace.army.mil.

In part it stated, "This news release was issued to coincide with the completion of a report for the Georgian Bay Association, prepared by W.F. Baird & Associates. The report is based on the premise that the difference in water levels between Lakes Michigan and Huron and the lower lakes is becoming smaller over time."

The gist of the news release is that water levels on the Great Lakes rise and fall periodically, due to natural causes. The level of water on Lake Erie is rising, while overall the level of the upper Great Lakes is remaining stable. This is causing the difference in water level between the upper and lower lakes to become smaller.

Obviously, the merits of these differing opinions will become clear as time goes on. On a more practical level, what does this mean to recreational boating and fishing in Huron County?

"I know the water levels play a very important part in the boating and fishing industry," said Julie Arndt, Manager of Wagener County Park, south of Harbor Beach. "I saw some very nice boats come out of the water with damage from rocks. I frequently had people ask if they should launch their boat at the park, or go to town. I didn't want to discourage them from using the launch facility at the park, but I didn't want them to risk damage to their boat, either."

Even with an additional 10 inches of water above the 2003 level, there were problems last year.

The rocks surrounding the channel are treacherous with the low water levels," Arndt said. "Another 10 inches would be wonderful. My father always claimed it was a 30-year cycle, so I tell people the water levels will return, just give it a couple of years."

Sometimes being told to wait isn't the answer people want. After all, vacation time is limited, and many people want to take advantage of it in the pursuit of their favorite water sport, which is one of Huron County's greatest assets.

"I have a very positive outlook," Arndt said. "The water has been low before, and it will rise again. It's a little better every year. As a community we need to stay positive, to keep those visitors coming back, and prepare for better times ahead."

Marina owners are also concerned with the water level, and the impact it has on tourism. Dredging of channels and harbors is one solution to the problem, but isn't always necessary.

Chris Cristiano, co-owner of the Port Elizabeth Marina & Yacht Club, located in the harbor in Caseville, recently revamped his facility.

"We dredged a little when we removed our boat launch," he said. "But we're not planning to have to dredge this year. The harbor has had plenty of water the last few years. We had some very big boats come in."

Sometimes nature itself lends a helping hand. The winter of 2003-2004 brought below normal temperatures, and a quick thaw in the spring created a stimulating breakup in the Pigeon River, which flows through the Caseville River.

Municipal Harbor on its Way to Saginaw Bay.

Thick chunks of ice were carried downstream where they met a wall, because the bay was still frozen. After some excitement, and not a little damage along the shoreline, the ice finally broke and flowed into Saginaw Bay. This left behind a cleanup, but also contributed to the overall welfare of the river and harbor.

"The ice floe helped drag a lot of silt," Cristiano said. "It widened the river, and cleaned it out, all the way to the breakwall."

If projections are correct, and the natural cycle continues, the rivers, harbors and lakes of Huron County will see a stable, or continuing, increase in water levels. This will provide boaters and fishermen, residents and visitors alike, with a more "normal" perspective in the coming years.

Don't give up hope. As the photos show, which accompany this article, the Great Lakes are capable of holding a great deal more water than they do now.